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Liar's Dice

Liar's Dice is poker with dice cups. Experts count visible dice, calculate binomial odds on bids, and escalate bluffs when cups empty.

Quick winning principles

  • Count all visible dice before every bid.
  • Aces are wild — factor them into every probability.
  • Challenge when bid exceeds expected value by 2+.
  • Late game: fewer dice means bids must drop — bluff the opposite.

Ideal strategy

  1. 1

    Probability math: with 30 dice in play and 5 players, expected count of any face is ~5. A bid of 12 fives needs aces and bluffs to be credible.

  2. 2

    Ace wild counting: aces count as any face. Bidding fives when you hold three aces is strong — they satisfy fives bids.

  3. 3

    Challenge threshold: challenge when bid > visible count + expected hidden + 2. Early challenges waste dice; late challenges are survival.

  4. 4

    Bid escalation: each bid must raise quantity or face. Jumping quantity by 2 signals strength or desperation — read cup sizes.

  5. 5

    Endgame bluffing: with 2 dice left, bid aggressively on your highest pair. Opponents often challenge incorrectly on 3-of-a-face bids.

  6. 6

    Palifico and special rules: when aces aren't wild, recalculate entirely — ace bids become information bids.